Description:
Rise of hazard data monitoring, extensive data collection in the last decade has resulted in plethora of
estimation and forecasting solutions provided to the risk environments like mining in the hope of managing
major risks and dialling in the controls. Provenance of estimation and forecasting confidence in mining
industry has been difficult to verify or quantify. One may frequently observe the over confidence placed
in them in the recent years, which have costed in the form of significant events or loss of assets. While
the terms, estimation, prediction and forecasting are used interchangeably, this paper attempts to define
their appropriateness in defining indicators and warning signs to manage gas, sponcom, fires and explosion
risks.
Over the centuries, records of birds, animals, workers and the society that had used various forms of
indicators and warning signs for protection and anticipation of good or bad omens that are noted in oral
and traditional literatures. Historically, the act of forecasting was both a blessing or a curse. For
example, the Jewish prophet Isaiah, in the old testament noted that “ Tell us what the future holds, so we
may know that you are gods,” or emperor Constantius II, who issued a decree in AD357 forbidding anyone “to
consult a soothsayer, a mathematician, or a forecaster … May curiosity to foretell the future be silenced
forever…”.
The proposed workshop aims to share the plethora of avenues to sabotage major safety risks in mines. Dr
Bharath Belle will be sharing over 3 decades of cumulative international operational experiences of
managing the catastrophic risks in multi-commodities, including intelligence and investigation
techniques.
This 2 -hr workshop is not about “how to sell a bird from Birdsville.” This is translating and sharing
data driven and fact-based workshop on historical major risks are ideal for:
- Operational decision makers, analysts and safety critical thinkers
- University academics, Students and service providers
- Safety and Security Investigators and Insurance Decision Makers
- Workers, regulators and community safety leaders
To forecast or not to forecast major risks? Using Visual Friendly Learning Materials, the workshop will
share current practical knowledge tools on how to measure impact of major risk identification and
estimation in either information rich or deficient environment to the attendees. What is your preference
to indicators against warning signs? The attendees will gain global perspective on compliance-risk
based-and compliance to risk based legislative country environments through mine specific problem centric
examples for implementable ideas at your own operations.